In his first 100 days, President Trump has scored a lot of wins at home. But what of abroad? What does the score-card look like in the world outside America?
The most glaring failure to live up to a campaign promise lies in the Russia-Ukraine war. On the campaign trail, Trump said two things repeatedly about this war. The first is that it would have never have started on his watch. Which may be true, but it is also irrelevant now the conflict rumbles on.
The second thing he said repeatedly was a promise: he would be able to end the conflict “on day one” of his return to office. Otherwise expressed as ending the war “in 24 hours.”
Perhaps the president under?estimated how reluctant the Ukrainians would be to give up land that has been stolen by Vladimir Putin. But far more than that, perhaps Trump overestimated the deterrent effect he has on Putin.
Broken promises
Because as I wrote here last week, the Russian president has repeatedly strung his US counterpart along. He has made promises that he has broken. And then he has gone on to do the same thing again. The fact that Trump has appointed real-estate mogul Steve Witkoff to oversee the negotiations to end this — and all other foreign wars — has not helped matters.
Ordinarily a secretary of state would oversee such negotiations. Marco Rubio would be well placed to do so — as long as he brings the right team.
But Witkoff going into the Kremlin alone? Learning on the job? Against a master of the arts like Putin? This is proving a ?disaster.
If Trump wants to stop a lineup of broken foreign-policy promises, he should sideline Witkoff as soon as possible. Or blame him for the failures and move on.
There’s no job in government that is good to learn from scratch. But learning foreign affairs against regimes with long memories is the worst role of all.
I once asked a great expert on the Middle East what one thing he wished people outside the region understood. It was this. Countries like America think in two-year electoral cycles — four years at the absolute most.
But all the time, we have to try to understand and negotiate with groups and governments that think of a decade as the smallest fraction of time.
As it happens, that is also the case with Putin.
While Witkoff seems unfamiliar with what happened in 2014 or 2022, he is facing a Russian president perfectly happy to discuss what happened way back in the 8th century.
This is even more the case in the Middle East. There, too, Trump promised spectacular successes. He even said that if the Israeli hostages were not all released by the time of his inauguration. then there would be hell to pay.
No ‘hell’ unleashed
But there are still dozens of Israeli hostages (including one born in New Jersey) being held in the dungeons of Gaza. And when Trump has said that he would unleash hell on Hamas, he seems to have meant that he might encourage the Israelis to go back in on the ground in Gaza. That feels like a weak answer to a big question: what to do about Hamas? How to finish them off?
One reason why Hamas is not finished off is that they seem — again — to have run rings around Witkoff. Two months into his negotiations, in March, Witkoff admitted Hamas might have duped him into pretending it wanted a deal.
Hamas? Duped? A murderous death cult behaving unreliably? Whatever next.
Who could have expected that?
Except everybody.
Perhaps the problem is that one of the keys to unlocking the problem of Hamas is for America to put pressure on one of the terror group’s key funders and hosts — the terrorist-loving state of Qatar.
Yet you will be hard pressed to hear a single negative said about the terrorist-supporting state from Witkoff.
The Israel-Gaza war could end tomorrow if the Qataris felt even the most minimal pressure from America. But when they have done the least possible thing in negotiations, they get only salivating praise from Witkoff. Asked about them early in the stringing-along process, Witkoff memorably said the Qataris were doing “God’s work.” I’d hate to think how Witkoff imagines the devil if he sees ?angels in Qatar.
Envoy’s ‘Iran’ problem
But it is with the Iranian revolutionary government that Trump’s envoy is running into his biggest problem.
When Barack Obama was president, he signed the US into nuclear negotiations with the ayatollahs known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It saw the US and various other allies being mercilessly mislead by the mullahs. Out of office, Trump rightly blasted the deal and removed America from the negotiations. He understood the West was being outplayed. He also understood that one of the best ?pieces of leverage anyone has over the revolutionary government in Iran is sanctions.
Trump snuffed out the mullahs’ economy and the revolutionary movement suffered. But then in 2020, Biden came in and gave the Iranians a cash windfall. Suddenly the Ayatollahs were rich again. Meaning that Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis were rich, too. None of which has worked out well for Israel or anyone else in the region.
Now it looks like Witkoff is being hooked by the ayatollahs into an “Obama” process. The Iranian regime is still racing for the bomb. Trump has said he wants a deal. But the ayatollahs are still riding high.
In Iran — as in Russia — this country’s foes have made a calculation. Trump himself has made great promises and great statements. But his negotiator has been hooked into negotiations. And the Kremlin, Iran, Qatar, Hamas and the rest of them have reckoned that they can string America along very nicely.
A few more weeks will become a few more months and then a few more years. And then — no Trump — and behold a weaker American leader who will lead America and the world into a far worse place.