Ken Davidoff

Ken Davidoff

MLB

Breaking down Girardi’s likely playoff rotation strategy

As if Joe Girardi and his lieutenants didn’t have enough variables to juggle as they prepare for next week and beyond, the Yankees have gone and made the American League East into a little bit of a race again.

Who would start Monday’s Red Sox-Yankees seeding game? You could see hints of smoke coming out of Girardi’s ears when that issue arose late Tuesday.

While it’s fun to contemplate in the wake of the Yankees’ 6-1 victory over the Rays at Yankee Stadium combined with Boston’s 9-4 loss to the Blue Jays at Fenway Park, we’re still talking about a three-game Sawx lead with five left. The strong likelihood remains the Yankees will kick off their playoff run Oct. 3 in the Bronx with the do-or-die wild-card game against the Twins.

So it’s time to dive into the Yankees’ starting pitching alignment for the postseason. Here are the guiding principles Girardi should — and probably will — deploy:

1. Don’t overthink this.

Luis Severino will start Wednesday night against the Rays, putting him in line to start, with five days off, the wild-card game. Brian Kenny, the MLB Network’s intellectual provocateur, floated a fascinating idea Tuesday: Save Severino for Game 1 of the ALDS, probably in Cleveland against the Indians — and consequently the do-or-die Game 5, if necessary — and turn the wild-card affair into a “Bullpen Game,” starting the fireballing Chad Green and working through the team’s impressive relief corps. Kenny’s TV teammate, Hall of Famer John Smoltz, suggested the Yankees use a different starting pitcher while preserving Severino.

With all due respect: No, no, no, a thousand times no.

“I think that’s pretty risky,” Girardi said Tuesday, “because you’re in a one-game playoff, and your season’s over if you don’t win that game.”

Yes, the Twins look like a strikingly inferior opponent; hence the temptation to not fire the Severino bullet. The Yankees will pass. Look, if they’re winning 16-0 after five innings, then they can lift Severino for Jaime Garcia and have Severino very well rested for an ALDS Game 3 start.

2. CC Sabathia is your Roger Clemens.

By the time the Yankees acquired Clemens from the Blue Jays in 1999, the Rocket was 36. He participated in 14 postseason series with the Yankees, including his 2007 last hurrah. In only four of those series did he pitch more than once.

While the length of the series obviously factors greatly into that, the Yankees largely tried to limit Clemens’ workload.

Now Sabathia, 37 and the owner of a troublesome right knee, is the guy who ideally will empty the tank once per series. The Yankees have arranged their starters for this lineup: Sonny Gray in ALDS Game 1, Masahiro Tanaka in Game 2, Severino (on four days’ rest) in Game 3 and Sabathia in Game 4, with Gray set for Game 5 and Tanaka and possibly Severino available out of the bullpen.

“I’ll do whatever they ask,” Sabathia said, evidence of why he’s so respected in this clubhouse. He said he’d understand if he got Game 4.

“I think it’s possible to get [Sabathia] two starts [in a series],” Girardi said. “Is it a little risky? Yeah.”

3. Jordan Montgomery is your starter in reserve.

If one of the four starters goes down, then Montgomery, who allowed just one run on six hits over six innings to get his ninth win Tuesday — and thanked the returning Aaron Hicks for robbing Wilson Ramos of a first-inning grand slam — has earned the fifth spot on the depth chart. That means he should throw in Tampa at the Yankees’ minor-league complex and stay in shape to re-enter the rotation if there’s an injury. Whereas the veteran Garcia is better suited to be on the roster and serve as a long reliever.

Girardi, with his team’s path not yet confirmed, dealt unenthusiastically with questions about his pitching — though he easily exceeded the efforts of his bosses, who still refuse to entertain questions about extended netting in the Stadium for next year.

This time of year, your plan must be both sound and fluid. This Yankees’ construct appears sound. They’ll be thrilled if the fluidity is tested by even more AL East turbulence.

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